The Packers don’t… Green Bay is 4-12 ATS in dome games under Mike Sherman, but 13-5 ATS priced between +3.5 and +9.5. This could serve them well in their next game in Atlanta as 9-point underdogs. The Cheese Heads are coming off a 20-10 home loss in Pittsburgh, but they actually outplayed the Steelers that day. Five of the Packers’ seven losses have been by 7 points or fewer and the Falcons haven’t had that big of a number on their wings all season.
Silver and black turn red… Oakland is 0-6 ATS in its last six at home and has Denver -3 reaching the Black Hole this week. The Broncos pose a tough test entering this game 6-2 SU (5-2-1 ATS) on the season and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 vs. division games. The Raiders also must bounce back from a last-second 27-23 crushing road loss to Kansas City as three-point dogs last Sunday. The demoralizing setback left the OAK at 3-12 ATS in their last fifteen AFC West opponents. Norv Turner… can you hear that sizzle? It’s his ass in the hot seat below.
Identity problem for jaguars? Jacksonville is coming off an uninspiring 21-14 home win over the Terrible Texans. The lackluster effort marked a recurring pattern of play that could cost its sponsors this week against Baltimore. We’re talking about the Jaguars’ tendency to play at the level of their competition. After nearly beating Indy before back-to-back victories over Cincy and Pittsburgh, the Jags planted back-to-back stink bombs in a loss against St. Louis (which had four Pro Bowl players out) two weeks ago and Houston last Sunday. . This trend has manifested itself in the numbers as well, as JAX is 3-0 ATS as a dog but just 1-3-1 ATS as a favorite with the +7.5 Ravens coming to town this week.
Bosses ripe for disappointment? Kansas City is coming off a dramatic last-second 27-23 home win over Oakland. Apparently, bettors don’t see the Chiefs matching that effort this weekend, where they are surprising underdogs on the road at 3-5 Buffalo. These same Bills who rank 29th in offense and a bewildering 31st in run defense. By the way, the Chiefs rank seventh in both running attack and defense. This is a long road trip for the Chiefs, but on paper they have a pretty significant advantage in the all-important line of scrimmage factor.
Giant problem for Brad Johnson? … In his first start since taking over for Daunte Culpepper (who is out for the year with a knee injury), Brad Johnson threw for 136 yards and two touchdowns in a 27-14 home win against. detroit. But Vikings fans will need him to walk on water this week, as his team is 0-4 both SU and ATS on the road this year and now has a date with the Giants at the Meadowlands. Johnson will look to bolster an offense that has averaged just 8 PPG on the road this season. Meanwhile, the Vikings’ defense has been just as pathetic, allowing 33.8 PPG away from the Twin Cities. NY for its part is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS as host while outscoring opponents 35-16 in this role.
The Buccaneers’ ship is sinking… Carolina handed Tampa Bay and its struggling offense its first home loss in a 34-14 blowout. For the second week in a row, Chris Simms threw two interceptions and was sacked five times since he replaced the injured Brian Griese. And Cadillac Williams also stalled for just 49 yards on 24 carries over this stretch since he missed the previous two games with injury. You may remember that Cadillac was the toast of the town after beginning his NFL career with three straight games of 120-plus rushing yards. While the Bucs’ offense squanders the team’s No. 1 defense, Washington comes into town next week with a much better balance, ranking 11th in offense and 7th in defense.
EAGLES LESS PROBLEM Bill Parcells is 51-31 ATS as a loser since the early ’90s and has a good chance to improve on that mark against a vulnerable Eagles squad on Monday night. Philadelphia fell to 4-4 SU and 2-6 ATS after falling 17-10 at Washington in the first game of the Post-Terrell Owns era. However, don’t blame the loss on Owens’ foul. Filling in for the disgruntled fuel, backup Reggie Brown did well, catching five passes for a touchdown and 94 yards. Once again, the Eagles’ non-existent running game, ranked last in the NFL, managed just 45 rushing yards. Things won’t get any easier this week against Dallas’ sixth ranked run stop unit.
Just the facts, ma’am… The home favorites are now 48-40 ATS on the season, while the road favorites are marginally profitable at 18-15 ATS. If the company’s abacus is correct, that means the overall favorites are 66-55 ATS. Breaking this down further, we find that the -3 or under favorites are a busting bookie 36-22 ATS. Home favorites of -3 or less rank at 26-16 ATS, while road favorites of one field goal or less rank at 10-6 ATS. No wonder many bookies aren’t having a fun season! But keep in mind that those extravagant buildings lining the Las Vegas strip weren’t built with easy money. If history repeats itself, expect the underdogs to make a big comeback in the second half.
