Do you remember the scene from the movie “Catch Me If You Can” when the airline pilots, dressed in their impeccable blue Pan Am uniforms, exit the cockpit and enter the New York City hotel in slow motion, with beautiful stewardesses piggyback?
That image of the pilot’s golden age of air travel (high pay, big benefits, free rides, public respect) has faded somewhat over time, and many in the aviation industry are concerned that there won’t be enough pilots to meet future demands.
In recent years, some numbers and statistics have been released indicating that a so-called pilot shortage is in fact occurring. Is there really a pilot shortage? And if so, what does it mean for the industry?
A look at some numbers
According to the Federal Aviation Administration’s Statistics on US Civilian Aviators, the FAA issued just over 55,000 student pilot certificates in 2011. That’s more than 100 more than last year, but still it is down from nearly 67,000 student licenses in 2001. In 2011, the FAA issued just over 8,500 commercial pilot certificates, down from a high of 12,299 in 2002.
Boeing recently released its “2012 Pilot and Technician Outlook,” an industry reference guide for accurate predictions of future demand and air traffic volumes. Boeing projects a need for approximately one million new commercial airline pilots and maintenance technicians by 2031, including 460,000 new commercial airline pilots and 601,000 maintenance technicians.
In its “pilot outlook,” Boeing said a pilot shortage has already emerged in many regions of the world. Airlines around the world are expanding their fleets and flight schedules to meet growing demand in emerging markets, with Asia in particular experiencing operational delays and disruptions due to pilot scheduling constraints.
Regulatory reasons for the decline?
If the number of new pilots is decreasing, while the need for them is increasing, what has caused the discrepancy? Some regulatory changes could be to blame.
The rise of the regional The beginning dates back to 1978, when the Airline Deregulation Act became federal law, eliminating government-subsidized airfares and allowing free-market competition to drive down ticket prices.
Lower fares and competition among major airlines caused airline unions to lose some of their bargaining power. Lower profits led some large companies to abandon point-to-point routes in favor of hub-based routing.
Regional airlines became more popular, but hired less experienced pilots for less money than their counterparts from the major airlines. Today, a regional airline first officer starts at about $25,000 a year, which isn’t exactly a competitive salary.
Extension of the retirement age. In December 2007, the FAA issued a statement extending the mandatory retirement age for commercial pilots from 60 to 65 years. When the new rule went into effect, there was a wave of pilots preparing to retire, which could have crippled the industry with a pilot shortage. The extension delayed many pilot retirements for five years until December 2011, and some believe that all those pilots who began retiring in late 2011 created a surge in demand for new pilots.
Rest requirements increased. Around the same time, in late December 2011, the US Department of Transportation and the FAA announced a new fatigue rest requirement for commercial pilots. The new rule requires each pilot to rest at least 10 hours before a flight duty tour, an increase of two hours from the previous rules. The new rule also requires a pilot to sleep uninterrupted for eight hours within the 10-hour rest period. The new rules, in turn, required many of the majors to hire thousands of new drivers to meet the new rest requirements, resulting in significant new hiring across the board.
Increase in flight hours. Another new FAA rule announced in February 2012 will require flight captains to have an additional 1,000 hours of flight time above the 1,500 to receive airline transport pilot (ATP) certification. Both captains and first officers will need to complete additional training to receive the ATP, including 50 hours of multi-engine flight experience. The rule was enacted in response to the 2009 Colgan Air accident in Buffalo, New York, and will go into effect in August 2013. The increased training hours will add significant time and cost for new pilots trying to graduate.
Other Possible Factors Fueling a Shortage
Flight school expenses. Over the years, financing a pilot’s education has become more expensive and more difficult to obtain a loan. Flight school for commercial airline pilot training can cost up to $80,000, typically in addition to existing college degrees. The military’s GI bill no longer pays for independent flight training, and federal financier Sallie Mae now only provides tuition loans for certain flight schools due to high post-9/11 default rates.
Changes in the army. More pilots are choosing to stay in the military rather than fly in the private sector. This has reduced the supply pool of military-trained pilots hired by airlines. Additionally, the number of pilots in the military has been greatly reduced, in part due to the increased use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).
Industry outlook looks good
Despite the challenges outlined above, the future looks promising for the aviation industry as a whole. As the US and global economy grows and airlines order thousands of new commercial aircraft over the next 20 years, the demand for pilots, mechanics and instructors will continue to increase.
As a new generation of aircraft takes over, aircraft reliability will improve, maintenance check intervals will lengthen, and the need for maintenance personnel will continue to increase with the size of the global fleet.
On the general aviation (GA) front, the FAA expects business aviation demand to grow over the long term, projecting GA flight hours to increase an average of 2.2% annually through 2031.
For pilots, opportunities abound: the Asia Pacific region will demand approximately 185,600 pilots. Europe will be second, requiring more than 100,000 pilots by 2031, and in North America, the demand will be 69,000 new pilots in the next 20 years.
Is there a threat of a pilot shortage? Perhaps, but if so, it’s a reflection of the growing demand for pilots, and that’s a good thing for pilots and the industry.
As individuals, we can help prevent a future shortage by encouraging the next generation of potential pilots to do so, get properly trained, and take advantage of the career opportunities available to them. Because despite changes in the industry, getting paid to fly a plane is still a great way to earn a paycheck.
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