Almost everyone is familiar with the team’s “Power Ratings”
Let me introduce you to my NFL “Power Ranking Totals”. I designed a set of home / away numbers for each NFL team. I can combine and adjust them based on performance each week during the season, so I can find value in game totals.
These numbers are based on a calculation that I devised, which goes back a certain number of years for each club. Taking into account the coaches and players. And I give a “percentage weighted” rating for the total scores both at home and away. The process is repeated with a different “weighted percentage” for a number of times. Once finished, the “PRT’s” are ready for the season.
Please note that these are concrete numbers. We must take into account injuries and the weather.
For example: if a starting quarterback is out of the game. You must decide how many points it is really worth.
Week 1 of 2006 is a perfect example. Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is out when the Steelers host Miami. Veteran Charlie Batch takes his place.
The “Total Power Rating” for this pairing is 41 (we can expect a total of 41 points to be scored).
The game opened at 37 before Big Ben underwent emergency surgery. Now, in most places, the total is 34.5. It’s not a dramatic drop, is it?
We now have a difference of 6.5 points in the “PRT” and the actual total. Still take a look to play the ending?
Here are the NFL “Power Ranking Totals” for week one
Miami / Pittsburgh 41
Denver / St. Louis 44
NY .Jets / Tennessee 40.5
Buffalo / New England 41.5
Baltimore / Tampa Bay 36.5
Cincinnati / Kansas City 49
Seattle / Detroit 44
Atlanta / Carolina 41
Philadelphia / Houston 43.5
New Orleans / Cleveland 41
Dallas / Jacksonville 38
Chicago / Green Bay 39.5
San Francisco / Arizona 40
Indianapolis Giants / NY 45.5
Minnesota / Washington 43.5
San Diego / Oakland 43
We look for a minimum difference of at least 3 points between the “PRT” and the total bets to consider a play.
Thank you and good luck!
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